It’s a testament to how deep the league has become that the NBA’s play-in tournament is being headlined by names such as LeBron James and Steph Curry in the West and Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler and Diar DeRo… sorry, DeMar DeRozan in the East.
Such is the state of the NBA today. Some of the best players in the league, on some of the most playoff-synonymous teams, still have a win-or-go-home game left on their plates after 82 regular-season outings.
The 7-8 matchup in the East features Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers facing off against a familiar foe in Butler and the Miami Heat in a “Tobias Harris over me?” revenge game.
Meanwhile, the 9-10 game pits two Jekyll-and-Hyde teams that have become regulars in the play-in with the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks.
The best month and a half of the NBA season starts now. Here’s an amuse-bouche previewing the Eastern play-in games before the main course.
(7) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (8) Miami Heat @ 7:00 p.m. ET.
Season series: Tied 2-2
Dec. 25, 2023: Heat won 119-113
Feb. 14, 2024: Heat won 109-104
March 18, 2024: 76ers won 98-91
April 4, 2024: 76ers won 109-105
Betting line: Heat +5.5 | 76ers -5.5 O/U: 207.5 (Odds provided by Sports Interaction)
PULSE ON 76ERS (47-35)
When Embiid went down with a meniscus injury on Jan. 30, the 76ers had a 29-17 record and sat in fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Then, in the ensuing 29 games without their star big man, Philadelphia went 11-18 and needed a strong push to close out the season to try and avoid the play-in.
Unfortunately, a season-ending eight-game win streak wasn’t enough to surpass the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic and secure an automatic berth. Regardless, the team seems to have recaptured their rhythm and are playing with some serious momentum as they gear up for the post-season.
Embiid might not be fully healthy, but what matters is that he’s back and is averaging 30.4 in his last five. When the former MVP is healthy, though he’s had his troubles in the playoffs in years past, the 76ers are a force to be reckoned with, particularly with the emergence of Tyrese Maxey this season.
PULSE ON HEAT (46-36)
For a second year, the Miami Heat find themselves in the play-in tournament needing a win to get into the dance and let Butler’s true powers emerge.
It was a middling regular season for them, as Butler seemed to save his energy once again, playing in only 60 games and averaging 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists, all down from last season.
Taking Butler’s and the Heat’s numbers from the regular season at face value once the post-season rolls around has always seemed like a death knell, as year after year the team emerges when the lights are the brightest. However, they’re entering the post-season as the lowest-scoring team of all 20 playoff/play-in squads and have the second-lowest offensive rating. Their fourth-ranked defence, led by big man Bam Adebayo, could be the deciding factor here.
X-FACTORS
Tobias Harris (Philadelphia 76ers): How Harris fares, particularly on the defensive end, could decide how the pendulum swings in this one. Though not exactly known for his work on that end, he’ll draw the unenviable task of guarding playoff Jimmy. If that doesn’t wear him out too much, the Sixers will need the 40.3 per cent corner 3-point shooter to alleviate the load for Embiid, who is still recovering from his meniscus injury.
Duncan Robinson (Miami Heat): When Robinson gets hot, the Heat are unstoppable. In games where the shoot-first, ask-questions-later wing has scored 20 or more points, the Heat are undefeated at 11-0. However, he’s been cold of late and hasn’t reached that mark since March 17. If the Heat want to out-gun the score-happy 76ers, they’ll need Robinson to find his touch.
KEY TO VICTORY
The matchup between bigs will likely be what decides this game. If Embiid isn’t back to full form against one of the best defensive bigs in the league in Adebayo, it could be tough for a 76ers team that, despite Maxey’s emergence this season, still relies on Embiid to get to work down low. Their scoring went way down in February (109.8) and March (105.4) without the big man in the middle, so Adebayo forcing that matchup and preventing him from getting going will be massive.
(9) Chicago Bulls vs. (10) Atlanta Hawks @ 9:30 p.m. ET. on Sportsnet 360
Season series: Bulls won 2-1
Dec. 26, 2023: Bulls won 118-113
Feb. 12, 2024: Bulls won 136-126
April 1, 2024: Hawks won 113-101
Betting line: Hawks +3.5 | Bulls -3.5 O/U: 221.5 (Odds provided by Sports Interaction)
PULSE ON BULLS (39-43)
The Bulls are as confusing as it gets. In their last 10 games, they’ve notched wins against the Timberwolves and Knicks before blowing the doors off the Pacers. On the other hand, they also dropped two to the Knicks over that span, got blown out by the Nets and Magic and lost the rubber match of the season series against the Hawks.
Though they’ve been unwilling to tank and sell aging assets like Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan, the Bulls still somehow managed to find quality young pieces that have given them a big boost this year. Most improved candidate Coby White, in his fifth season, has averaged 19.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists and third-year sixth-man Ayo Dosunmu is scoring 12.2 points a game while hitting a career-high 40.3 per cent from deep.
Meanwhile, stalwarts like DeRozan and Alex Caruso have kept the pace, with the former averaging 26.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.5 since March 1 and the latter continually proving to be one of the top defensive players in the league with 2.7 steals+blocks a game.
Their direction this year is still confusing, but in one-off games like these, the Bulls have proven that they can hang with anyone in the league.
PULSE ON HAWKS (36-46)
Could this be the last we see of this iteration of the Atlanta Hawks? Atlanta has seemed destined to blow it up for most of this season, with the backcourt experiment of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray failing to meet expectations for a second year.
In the 23 games that Young missed due to a finger injury, the Hawks went 12-11. Not spectacular by any means, but the team functioned more fluidly with only Murray running the offence. He averaged 24.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 9.2 assists in that span, proving he can set the table in Young’s stead.
However, it’ll be tough sledding for the Hawks in this outing as they’ll be without breakout forward Jalen Johnson, who suffered an ankle sprain, and backup big Onyeka Okongwu, who underwent surgery on his toe.
If this is the end of the road for this Hawks core, it should be interesting to see how both guards perform. The Hawks could potentially move one or both of them this off-season.
X-FACTORS
Coby White (Chicago Bulls): It took a lot of willpower to not put Diar DeRozan here, however, White’s breakout year has been too good to pass up. The fifth-year guard jumped from 9.7 to 19.1 points a game this season, all while maintaining his solid efficiency. Without LaVine in the lineup, White has been given a chance to shine in Chicago and looks like a legit piece for the future. He’ll need to prove that in this first play-in game.
Dejounte Murray (Atlanta Hawks): Though Murray’s defensive pedigree has fallen off a cliff this season, he has made up for it on offence, finishing with a career-high 22.5 points while hitting 36.3 per cent of his career-high 7.1 3-point attempts a game. However, if he’s still unable to show he can share the backcourt with Young, their lack of chemistry could be their undoing in this matchup against the Bulls’ solid point-of-attack defence.
KEY TO VICTORY
DeRozan has carved up the Hawks this season, scoring 28.3 points a game against them, his third-highest mark against any team in the league. But such is the case for a lot of players against Atlanta’s porous defence, as the Hawks give up the second most points per game at 120.5, a factor that could prove to be their undoing yet again. If the Hawks intend to make it out alive here, it won’t be their defence that they can lean on. This one will have to be a shootout, with Young and Murray doing everything in their power to outscore a Bulls team that, luckily for them, ranks 22nd in the league in scoring at 112.3 a night.
