Love them or hate them, mock drafts are the lifeblood of the NFL offseason, bridging the gap from the Super Bowl to draft night.
An exercise based (mostly) on speculation, though many reputable draft analysts watch the film and do their best to match players and teams based on areas of need and conversations with scouts and team executives.
But how credible are the so-called “experts?” Here is a look at how four top draft analysts fared in their first-round predictions.
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN
Number of correct picks: 9
- Chicago, Caleb Williams
- Washington, Jayden Daniels
- New England, Drake Maye
- Arizona, Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Minnesota, J.J. McCarthy
- New York Giants, Malik Nabers
- Chicago, Rome Odunze
- Dallas, Tyler Guyton
- Arizona, Darius Robinson
The most well-known mock drafter, Kiper Jr., ironically has one of the worst success rates (23% historically) among the top draft analysts. However, this was a strong year for him, as he got nearly 30% of his projections correct, including some obvious ones at the top of the draft.
Kiper Jr. was the only one of a small few to predict Robinson to Arizona correctly, and he saw Guyton making too much sense for Dallas to pass up as well. This year was a good but not great effort from the OG mock drafter. GRADE: B
Peter Schrager, Good Morning Football
Number of correct picks: 11
- Chicago, Caleb Williams
- Washington, Jayden Daniels
- New England, Drake Maye
- Arizona, Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Minnesota, J.J. McCarthy
- New York Giants, Malik Nabers
- Chicago, Rome Odunze
- Denver, Bo Nix
- Dallas, Tyler Guyton
- Tampa Bay, Graham Barton
- Arizona, Darius Robinson
Of the four draft experts being graded, Schrager had by far the best showing. He correctly predicted 35% of his picks and was the only one with Barton going to Tampa Bay. He gets credit for Robinson to Arizona, Nix to Denver, and Guyton to Dallas.
Schrager is highly regarded in NFL circles, particularly among front-office personnel and scouts. He’s arguably the most trusted source regarding draft analysis from January until draft night, earning our highest mark. GRADE: A-
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network
Number of correct picks: 8
- Chicago, Caleb Williams
- Washington, Jayden Daniels
- New England, Drake Maye
- Arizona, Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Minnesota, J.J. McCarthy
- New York Giants, Malik Nabers
- Denver, Bo Nix
- Baltimore, Nate Wiggins
Jeremiah was the only one of the four draft experts we looked at to correctly predict Wiggins’s selection to the Ravens, a pick that makes sense from both a value and needs perspective. He was also one of only a handful of draft analysts to have Denver take Nix, although it was 10 picks later than he projected.
Jeremiah got the low-hanging fruit plus a few others most missed, but he didn’t predict some other seemingly obvious fits like Odunze to Chicago, Taliese Fuaga to New Orleans or Brian Thomas Jr. to Jacksonville. GRADE: C+
Dane Brugler, The Athletic
Number of correct picks: 7
- Chicago, Caleb Williams
- Washington, Jayden Daniels
- New England, Drake Maye
- Arizona, Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Minnesota, J.J. McCarthy
- Cincinnati, Amarius Mims
- Dallas, Tyler Guyton
The Athletic’s draft scouting is likely more analytically based than other draft services, and Brugler has become a go-to source during the draft season for his draft guide “The Beast” — a 250-plus page tool that does a positional breakdown of the top prospects for each draft class.
Burgler may have a higher miss rate than his counterparts, but he does a great job of trying to match teams with talent based on roster need and projected availability. Although, he only hit on roughly 21% of his projections, reflecting his grade. GRADE: C