Sports Mole previews Saturday’s League One clash between Derby County and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Needing a point to guarantee their promotion from League One, Derby County will welcome already-relegated Carlisle United to Pride Park for the final game of the season on Saturday.
Back-to-back victories have seen the hosts build up a three-point lead over Bolton Wanderers in the top-two race, while their visitors are confined to a 24th-placed finish and a return to England’s fourth tier next season.
Match preview
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Derby County return to Pride Park on Saturday with the aim of sealing their promotion back to the Championship at the second time of asking, having built up a healthy lead in the fight for top-two spots.
After narrowly missing out on the playoffs last time around, the Rams have enjoyed a fine season under the tutelage of Paul Warne this term, accumulating 89 points from their 45 games thus far, winning 27 of those while suffering 10 defeats.
The most recent of those losses came away at Northampton Town in late March, but that has been their only true setback in an impressive run-in, having still moved into pole position in the automatic promotion race with 23 points from the last 10 games, including a five-game unbeaten streak heading into the weekend following the defeat at Sixfields.
Following a hard-fought home win over Blackpool and consecutive draws away at Portsmouth and Wycombe Wanderers, the Rams returned to winning ways at home to Leyton Orient in mid-April, dishing out a 3-0 beating thanks to Kane Wilson‘s opener and a Sonny Bradley brace, before most recently travelling to take on Cambridge United at the weekend and taking another major step towards sealing a top-two finish with a 1-0 victory thanks to Nathaniel Mendez-Laing‘s goal late in the first half.
Now sitting three points clear of third place heading into the final day, Derby County will go in search of a 28th league victory of the season on Saturday to wrap up their automatic promotion in style and end a two-year stay in England’s third tier.
Their visitors, meanwhile, travel to Pride Park aiming to bow out of League One on a high, having already been condemned to relegation after winning promotion from the fourth tier last time around.
Paul Simpson’s side have struggled throughout a tough campaign, sitting in the drop zone for the majority having managed just 30 points from their 45 outings so far, suffering 29 losses across those games including a 2-0 home defeat in the reverse fixture at home to Derby County in September in which James Collins hit a brace.
The Cumbrians’ drop was confirmed in a 2-0 defeat away at Northampton Town in early April, and after regaining some credit with a 1-0 triumph over fellow strugglers Cheltenham Town in the following encounter, they now again find themselves on the back of consecutive defeats in the third tier, firstly falling short at home to Blackpool with Karamoko Dembele hitting the only goal inside the opening minute.
Simpson’s men then welcomed Wycombe Wanderers to Brunton Park on Saturday, and after falling behind and drawing level through Alfie McCalmont, they would eventually be condemned to a 3-1 defeat by second-half goals from Richard Kone and Garath McCleary.
Now condemned to a 24th-placed finish having fallen 10 points behind Port Vale and Fleetwood Town, Carlisle United will bid to end their stay in League One on a high before returning to England’s fourth tier next season with a memorable result in Derbyshire.
Derby County League One form:
Carlisle United League One form:
Team News
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Derby County should be unchanged for Saturday’s crucial contest after their 1-0 win away at Cambridge United last time out, with Joe Ward, Craig Forsyth, Jake Rooney, Ryan Nyambe, Tyreece John-Jules and Dwight Gayle all set to remain sidelined by injuries.
In their 3-4-1-2 shape, Curtis Nelson, Sonny Bradley are bound to line up in a back three, while Ebou Adams and Korey Smith should fight off competition from Max Bird and Conor Hourihane to continue their midfield partnership.
At the top end of the pitch, in Gayle’s absence, their line should again be led by James Collins and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, who has contributed nine goals and 15 assists in 45 league appearances this term.
Carlisle are not expected to be dealing with many injury issues at the weekend, aside from key midfielder and captain Callum Guy, who has been out of action since October.
Harrison Neal should again anchor the midfield, having been an important figure since his January arrival, with Jon Mellish having also stepped forward from the defence to join him in the centre last time out.
That leaves Ben Barclay to partner mainstay Sam Lavelle at the back, while Luke Armstrong and Georgie Kelly will both hope to keep their places at the top end of the pitch while top scorer Jordan Gibson will fight to return from the outset.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Wildsmith; Nelson, Bradley, Cashin; Wilson, Smith, Adams, Sibley; Thompson; Collins, Mendez-Laing
Carlisle United possible starting lineup:
Lewis; Beck, Lavelle, Barclay, Armer; McCalmont, Neal, Mellish, Gibson; Kelly, Armstrong
We say: Derby County 2-0 Carlisle United
Heading into the game with home advantage and the desperation to get over the line with a victory, while boasting far more quality and momentum, we expect Derby County to make no mistake at Pride Park and come out on top to seal second spot and a return to the Championship.
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